SHTF Scenario???

Big Bill · Dec 28, 2008

There is so much talk about military type rifles on the NET in a SHTF scenario that it has me wondering? Do folks think they are going to go toe-to-toe with trained military squads or police type forces or well armed gangs, if say we are invaded by enemy forces or worse? Perhaps, if one plans to stay in overcrowded population centers where that kind of combat will be routine as was/is in Baghdad, or as it was in Beirut, then I could perhaps see the need for such extreme measures.

But, wouldn’t a person be foolish to expose themselves and their family to such danger? Why instead, wouldn’t it be wiser to evacuate these dangerous places in favor of less lethal circumstances? Why shouldn’t one choose to separate themselves and their families for more remote yet secure locations?

Where, instead of a battle rifle a hunting rifle would be more appropriate? Why aren’t these kinds of scenarios and equipment discussed? Anyone who thinks they will be able to survive in the cities in a SHTF scenario is just kidding themselves, IMHO.

There are places around here where it is possible to go and not see another person for days or even weeks at a time. I’ve given it a lot of thought and know just where I’d go in a worst case scenario. I’ll be damned if I’m going to expose my family to danger when I can avoid it or at least deal with it on my terms in country that I know like the back of my own hand. What are your thoughts?

JWarren · Dec 28, 2008

This is OT for S&T, and been discussed MANY times on THR.

If you search SHTF, you will find your quesitons answered by numerous people.

There is so much talk about military type rifles on the NET in a SHTF scenario that it has me wondering? Do folks think they are going to go toe-to-toe with trained military squads or police type forces or well armed gangs, if say we are invaded by enemy forces or worse? Perhaps, if one plans to stay in overcrowded population centers where that kind of combat will be routine as was/is in Baghdad, or as it was in Beirut, then I could perhaps see the need for such extreme measures.

SHTF means different things depending on your definition.

But, wouldn’t a person be foolish to expose themselves and their family to such danger? Why instead, wouldn’t it be wiser to evacuate these dangerous places in favor of less lethal circumstances? Why shouldn’t one choose to separate themselves and their families for more remote yet secure locations?

Many times, bugging out is the WORST option. It was for me during Katrina.

Where, instead of a battle rifle a hunting rifle would be more appropriate?

A military style rifle is FAR more durable and dependable than my father's Remington 7400.

Why aren’t these kinds of scenarios and equipment discussed? Anyone who thinks they will be able to survive in the cities in a SHTF scenario is just kidding themselves, IMHO.

I survived mine.

Surviving is dependent on being prepared. It doesn't matter where you are if you aren't prepared.

There are places around here where it is possible to go and not see another person for days or even weeks at a time. I’ve given it a lot of thought and know just where I’d go in a worst case scenario. I’ll be damned if I’m going to expose my family to danger when I can avoid it or at least deal with it on my terms in country that I know like the back of my own hand. What are your thoughts?

Above.

-- John

jr45 · Dec 28, 2008

If you are talking about a total collapse of our government (law, military, services, etc) I could see not wanting to be in a extremely heavily populated area. However; going out into the woods by yourself or with your family may not be the best option (I see this scenario a lot on the SHTF threads). People need other people to survive. Since the beginning of time, tribes/clans were formed to facilitate this. When I was in Somalia (Operation Restore Hope), the people there grouped up into clans when the their government collapsed. They relied on each other for obtaining food, security, etc.

GrandMoffBrandon · Dec 28, 2008

Do folks think they are going to go toe-to-toe with trained military squads or police type forces or well armed gangs, if say we are invaded by enemy forces or worse?

I’ve often wondered that myself. And I also wonder how well one would do against trained military and police forces. Personally, I don’t see it working out in your favor, unless you are an LEO, ex-military, etc.

But, wouldn’t a person be foolish to expose themselves and their family to such danger? Why instead, wouldn’t it be wiser to evacuate these dangerous places in favor of less lethal circumstances? Why shouldn’t one choose to separate themselves and their families for more remote yet secure locations?

I imagine that depends on the SHTF scenario. I’d want to get as far away as possible from cities and military targets if we’re talking nuclear attack. Otherwise, staying in the city might not be so bad, if you’re properly prepared. Preparation, as JWarren has already stated, is key. And if civil defense preparations are adequate, your chances of surviving in the city might be better than a rural area. More people can actually be an advantage at times, if some order can be maintained. But again, the specifics of the SHTF scenario probably determine the best course of action. There probably isn’t a one-size fits all solution to these scenarios.

I’ll be damned if I’m going to expose my family to danger when I can avoid it or at least deal with it on my terms in country that I know like the back of my own hand.

And what happens when thousands of other urban refugees get the same idea of heading for the hills? The country won’t be so sparsely populated anymore and the added strain on rural resources might just make them dangerous areas as people fight for food, medicine, shelter, etc.

The Foo · Dec 28, 2008

I think people give more credit to LEO shooting skills than are actually merited.

Military and Ex-Military maybe.

I imagine the percentage of good civilian shooters outweighs good LEO shooters.

GrandMoffBrandon · Dec 28, 2008

I think people give more credit to LEO shooting skills than are actually merited.

Military and Ex-Military maybe.

I imagine the percentage of good civilian shooters outweighs good LEO shooters.

That could be the case. There are more civilians than police, after all. However, I would imagine strategy and tactics consists of more than good shooting skills and thus police (and most definitely military) would have the advantage. Or not, I'm still new to the world of guns, SHTF scenarios, etc.

Thin Black Line · Dec 28, 2008

FWIW, Baghdad was "slower" at times than some of the Iraqi redneck areas
I lived in.

kolob10 · Dec 28, 2008

SHTF

Those who fight and run away live to fight another day.

Thin Black Line · Dec 28, 2008

That's what those people were thinking before they ran into the ambush.

GrandMoffBrandon · Dec 28, 2008

That's what those people were thinking before they ran into the ambush.

You read my mind.

Big Bill · Dec 28, 2008

And what happens when thousands of other urban refugees get the same idea of heading for the hills? The country won’t be so sparsely populated anymore and the added strain on rural resources might just make them dangerous areas as people fight for food, medicine, shelter, etc.

Well, the place I'm talking about isn't the hills and it's not close to any dense population and nobody knows much about it and would probably die if they got caught out in it for very long. I'm talking about the real Claude Dallas country that very few people have been to that I have extensive knowledge about because I've trapped it and wintered there. In fact, I've got 4 or 5 other places just as familiar and remote if it gets to be a run-for-your-life situation. I've got two good 4x4s ready and paid for that can pack everything we'll need to live - just in case. But, I do hope it won't be necessary!!!

Guero4179 · Dec 28, 2008

To go toe-to-toe with trained military- insane unless its the Ivory Coast green berets. Sniping from a good distance maybe something.

Wouldn’t a person be foolish to expose themselves and their family to such danger? General Washington and the Continental army and the Minutemen where foolish to expose themselves to the most elite military force on earth and their Tory friends right in their neighborhoods but they beat them anyway because they believed in something.

meef · Dec 28, 2008

SHTF

Novel concept for a thread.

Why hasn't somebody done it before?

Big Bill · Dec 28, 2008

Guero - I know what Washington and those patriots did, but these aren't those times. In most suburban neighborhoods in densly populated areas the patriotic ferver doesn't exist as it did in 1776.

Besides, I think most suburbanites are too fat and lazy to do anything about it or even care until it's too late.

I believe the real key to survival will be by using real escape and evasion tactics and having some firepower to overcome dificult situations. But, if the whole Red army attacks your hideout in force you can KYAGB!

Treo · Dec 28, 2008

The problem W/ this topic is that it's so broad it's like discussing "dogs" what kind ? hunting, show,working,pure bred ,mutt etc.

What are we talking about total societal collapse ( you're screwed) The new world order? (your'e screwed) Great tribulation? (You're screwed) UN takes over ( you're screwed)

Is anybody else seeing a pattern here?

What happens when you get to "Claude Dallas" country ? Do you think you're the only one that knows how to survive out there? Dude people live out there (not many but they are there)

What if you meet a stranger? In tribal societies the word for stanger & enemy are some times interchangeable are you going to kill every one you meet?

Hell with it Just get a GLOCK

Guero4179 · Dec 28, 2008

most suburbanites are too fat and lazy

They are the most likely opponents. Hungry sheeple, people with a sense of entitlement but hardly any brains, people with criminal records, druggies etc. We can go toe to toe with them.

Against martial law, then it could be your survive evade and escape plan.

Big Bill · Dec 28, 2008

What happens when you get to "Claude Dallas" country ? Do you think you're the only one that knows how to survive out there? Dude people live out there (not many but they are there)

There aren't many who even know what there is out there, let alone how to survive in it. And, I know some of the people who live there and am familiar with others. Besides, there is enough room that you won't rub elbows with anyone very often.

GrandMoffBrandon · Dec 28, 2008

Well, the place I'm talking about isn't the hills and it's not close to any dense population and nobody knows much about it and would probably die if they got caught out in it for very long. I'm talking about the real Claude Dallas country that very few people have been to that I have extensive knowledge about because I've trapped it and wintered there. In fact, I've got 4 or 5 other places just as familiar and remote if it gets to be a run-for-your-life situation. I've got two good 4x4s ready and paid for that can pack everything we'll need to live - just in case. But, I do hope it won't be necessary!!!

I understand but as someone else pointed out there is nowhere that lots of other people don’t know about. And if you can get to it, they can too. You get a situation where you are in a remote, probably undeveloped area, possibly undergoing strain from the recent arrival of refugees, and resources become scarcer and people fighting and killing over them.

You mention having some 4x4s ready. Is that how you plan to get there? If so, it doesn’t sound like a place that is terribly difficult to get to. If the only way in is by air, like some places in Alaska, it might be different. But even then, there are lots of civilian planes out there, especially in Alaska.

But I am glad you are preparing a plan to survive. In America, I think our civil defense is a joke and individuals by and large do not take disaster preparation seriously.

To go toe-to-toe with trained military- insane unless its the Ivory Coast green berets. Sniping from a good distance maybe something.

I think guerrilla warfare would be the only viable option.

The problem W/ this topic is that it's so broad it's like discussing "dogs" what kind ? hunting, show,working,pure bred ,mutt etc.

I agree. Each SHTF scenario is different and there is no one-size fits all plan for everything that could happen. And if it is a SHTF scenario like nuclear war or other societal collapse, survival will be difficult even for the best prepared among us.

There aren't many who even know what there is out there, let alone how to survive in it. And, I know some of the people who live there and am familiar with others. Besides, there is enough room that you won't rub elbows with anyone very often.

That doesn’t mean people still won’t try to go there. And it becomes all the more dangerous because you now have very desperate people who don’t know how to survive and are therefore much more likely to kill in order to obtain food and other supplies.

JWarren · Dec 28, 2008

Hmmm....

I'm starting to think that this thread has the undertone of:

1.) Why do you people bother trying to be prepared for anything? You are too inadept, out of shape, and lazy to do anything about it.

and

2.) I, on the other hand, will do fine.

Nevermind the fact that:

A. We have numerous definitions of what SHTF IS. Many of them have nothing to do with invading armies, zombies, or even roving bands of refugees.

B. Doing something, or should I say any attempt at self-reliance, is better than pure defeatism and waiting for others to save you.

C. ANYONE can say they will be "fine." Most DO say they will be fine. Everyone that does say that has a plan until they get hit. No plan survives the first hit without serious modification.

It is of FAR more merit trying to help people understand what they need in thier particular area if they want to start taking preparation seriously.

-- John

ShadyScott999 · Dec 28, 2008

Reality Check 101

If anyone thinks 5 or 6 guys armed with AR's AK's etc. would have even the remotest chance against even a squad sized force with armored vehicles and all the weapons at their disposal, they are really living in a fantasy world.

If you don't believe me spend some time on YouTube looking at some of the house clearings going on in Iraq

JWarren · Dec 28, 2008

See... this is the problem with SHTF discussions.

About 1/2 the people are talking about staging a "Red Dawn" resistance and the other half are talking about being prepared to survive adversity, but not fight a war.

If we are talking Red Dawn here, I'm out. The Mod's will be around shortly to close this down, I suspect.

-- John

GrandMoffBrandon · Dec 28, 2008

1.) Why do you people bother trying to be prepared for anything? You are too inadept, out of shape, and lazy to do anything about it.

I am not trying to say that at all. I think most folks, with a little preparation, can significantly improve their chances of surviving whatever SHTF turns out to be.

2.) I, on the other hand, will do fine.

I have no idea how I’d fair but believe it is dependent on adequate preparations. My problem is I am not sure what those preparations are, yet.

A. We have numerous definitions of what SHTF IS. Many of them have nothing to do with invading armies, zombies, or even roving bands of refugees.

Indeed and I would say that most of the likely SHTF scenarios have nothing to do with those things.

B. Doing something, or should I say any attempt at self-reliance, is better than pure defeatism and waiting for others to save you.

That’s how I see it.

C. ANYONE can say they will be "fine." Most DO say they will be fine. Everyone that does say that has a plan until they get hit. No plan survives the first hit without serious modification.

That’s a very good point and something I’m trying do with my own plans.

Macmac · Dec 28, 2008

I just ran a search on "Claude Dallas country " It looks damned good to me other than i have my own places just like them but better. At least i think they are better..

And yeah SHTF depends on your views. My views don't have anything to do with the entire mil coming down on my head, and if thats what it is I will loose.

GrandMoffBrandon · Dec 28, 2008

About 1/2 the people are talking about staging a "Red Dawn" resistance.

I hope my brief comments about police and military did not give you that impression. I’m more interested in preparations for natural disasters and terrorist attacks. I suppose large-scale nuclear war is still possible, too. As for invading armies and zombies…eh, hm…yeah.

JWarren · Dec 28, 2008

SHTF Scenario???

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Similar threads