The calculations/results don't take caliber (round size) into account at all. They only assess the probability of making a certain number of hits, given a certain number of available shots and assuming a particular hit rate probability....round count wins out over round size...
What I'm saying is that nothing in the results should be construed as comparing round count to round size or making any statement at all about terminal effect.
That's really the primary point of the calculations. With LEO gunfight hit rates and a limited number of rounds, it's very challenging to get a decent number of hits....actually hitting the BG (or two) is very challenging.
And, of course, it is true that hitting the target is a pre-requisite of actually incapacitating an attacker, and that the more rounds you have available (assuming you have the time to shoot them all) the better your chances are of making hits.
None whatsoever. The only indirect assumption about time is that the defender gets a chance to use all his/her available rounds. There's no assumption about distance and it's possible that at very close ranges, the hit rate probability might increase. Of course, it all gets very complicated when you start trying to factor that kind of thing in because one could assume that the opponent's hit rate could go up too and that could have a bearing on the defender's hit rate (if he gets hit) and on whether or not he gets a chance to use all the available rounds.Does this have an implied set of time and distance factors?
It's a pretty basic result. It's just about the probability of achieving either 2 or 4 hits given the very simple assumptions. Fixed hit-rate probability, fixed # of shots available.
The calculations don't even assess most of the factors that go into choosing a carry gun. The calculation results are very narrowly focused on one specific aspect of gunfights and are only valid if one keeps the assumptions involved in mind....ammo capacity to trump all the other factors that go into choosing the right carry gun.
Frankly, what I get out of the numbers isn't as much about capacity as it is about the reality of gunfights.
I don't plan to change what I carry or how much ammo I carry, what has changed are my thoughts about the effectiveness of the weapon system that is my carry gun and I.
I hadn't realized how poor the chances were of actually being able to score hits on one or two opponents in a gunfight given a limited # of shots and a realistic probability of making a hit with each shot.
The realization, will, I hope, help me to make wise decisions in the event that I ever end up having to use my CCW in self-defense.
I think the biggest lesson is that the numbers show when a person, armed with a typical carry pistol, faces more than one determined attacker the biggest factor in whether the defender will "win" is whether or not one or more of the attackers gives up when the shooting starts. Something to think about.