.22lr MEGATHREAD

[j1]

I am retired and do not shop early. If the ammo is put out on the shelves at 7:00 am i will not be there. It does not matter if the price is a penny a round I will still not be there.

 

[ford8nr]

A lot of the ammo is going to people like ME who ordered much and ordered early. In the last year I've received 2 5000rd cases that were on backorder for a year. I have another backordered going on 13 months and one going on 6 months. Last weekend my wife and I shot almost 300rds in a Sil shoot. I've burned over 500 rds this summer in. Rifle sil league and 500rds in a pistol league. Plus practice I've burned over 2500 rds this summer. I'm not hoarding, I'm buying enough so I can shoot when I want. Advice? GET IN SOME ONLINE BACKORDER LISTS, those orders get filled first

 

[PowerShot]

I have 10 month old ammunition backorders, yet no one is able to say when they will get filled.

The manufacturers know their productions rate and have the list of orders. What's the problem?

Delivery estimate should be a simple question to answer, but is instead portrayed as utterly unknowable, apparently up there with predicting when lightning will strike.

It's that way with popular guns too. Absolutely no idea when they will be in stock. Unknowable! Mystery of the Universe!

What gives? Don't they fill purchases in the order placed? If so, estimated delivery is simple. Inability to estimate delivery implies there's some monkey business going on other than straight-forward "get in line".

 

[midland man]

so is the 22 ammo ever go back to normal

well been a long time since I've been able to get 22lr and 22mag, so will it ever be back on the shelves at lower prices??:banghead:

 

[R.W.Dale]

Did the price of gas go back down after hurricane Katrina?

There's your unfortunate answer

 

[dvdcrr]

Only when the hoarding stops

 

[Fishbed77]

Did the price of gas go back down after hurricane Katrina?

Yep. This.

 

[Grmlin]

Not anytime soon.

 

[midland man]

so is it years before it ever gets straightned out?

 

[Reloadron]

There is a thread for all of this 22 LR stuff. It can be found here. This way everything 22 LR related gets to remain in one place.

Ron

 

[R.W.Dale]

so is it years before it ever gets straightned out?

Supply may finally stabilize but you ARE looking at the new "normal" as far as price goes

 

[huntsman]

so is the 22 ammo ever go back to normal

Not until fanboys learn to be satisfied shooting 50 instead of 500.

 

[Charger442]

Did the price of gas go back down after hurricane Katrina?

There's your unfortunate answer

Gas and oil have never followed laws of supply and demand. Its not a good comparison.


This is better:

Did the price and availability of AR-15s and 5.56 ammo come back down after the panic in 2008? Yes, and there's your answer.

 

[Sam1911]

Did the price and availability of AR-15s and 5.56 ammo come back down after the panic in 2008? Yes, and there's your answer.

Bingo.

Wait a bit. .22LR ammo and handgun powder are the last bits of the supply chain to get back to normal, but they're coming around...slowly.

 

[R.W.Dale]

so is the 22 ammo ever go back to normal

Gas and oil have never followed laws of supply and demand. Its not a good comparison.


This is better:

Did the price and availability of AR-15s and 5.56 ammo come back down after the panic in 2008? Yes, and there's your answer.

I assure you 22 ammo will never see "normal" market forces again. Or at least not in this decade.

223 came back because everyone and their crippled uncle jumped in the ammo manufacturing game. Have you seen any new rimfire makers yet?


Ponder this. I'd bet a doughnut that 90% of 22's sold in the past 10 years are ar pattern guns with 25rd + mags. Without VAST new manufacturing this IS the new normal. And this was brewing up before sandy hook brought it to a head

 

[Charger442]

I assure you 22 ammo will never see "normal" market forces again. Or at least not in this decade.

223 came back because everyone and their crippled uncle jumped in the ammo manufacturing game. Have you seen any new rimfire makers yet?


Ponder this. I'd bet a doughnut that 90% of 22's sold in the past 10 years are ar pattern guns with 25rd + mags. Without VAST new manufacturing this IS the new normal. And this was brewing up before sandy hook brought it to a head

i disagree with everything you've said in that post.

fyi, there are people who are buying 22lr ammo right now, in retail stores for 4 cents a round. its regional though.

 

[Charger442]

and the reason 223 came back is because consumers got fully supplied, which meant that demand for 223 went back down. Once that happened, normal supply levels of 223 were reached and then were surpassed by those trying to meet the once high demand. After that, it only followed that the price had to go down and down and down.

we wont see 22lr come fully back everywhere until everyone who wants to buy it fills their personal cache and literally stops buying it for 6 months.

 

[R.W.Dale]

so is the 22 ammo ever go back to normal

i disagree with everything you've said in that post.

fyi, there are people who are buying 22lr ammo right now, in retail stores for 4 cents a round. its regional though.

So you don't think the million or so ar pattern 22's sold in the previous decade and the fact no new manufacturing capacity has been added since has any bearing whatsoever on supply?


The oil comparison is absolutely valid. Because just like the pressure China and India's growth put on the market the recent surge in the shooting sports popularity and tacticool 22's have done the same to rimfire ammo
Yeah it's all because of the hoarders and gougers I'm sure

 

[Charger442]

i think you over-estimate the ar pattern 22's sold and really over-estimate their impact on people buying and hourding 22 ammo. I would think the most popular 22s sold in the last 10 years are:

Ruger 10/22
Ruger 22/45
Savage MkII bolt actions
Marlin 60
SW 15-22

In the last 3 years alone, the precision 22lr shooting market has blown up with the affordable Anshutz MPR 64, the CZ 455 and 452 lines, all the variations that Savage is offering in its bolt action etc.



If things are never getting back to normal, how is 4 and 5 cent a round ammo being sold today in retail stores in NE Texas? By your assertions, that should all be 12 cent a round ammo and should be bought up on truck delivery day to feed 25 round AR mags.

I would say that LESS 22lr ammo is being shot today and pre-Sandy Hook. People are going to make sure they have 10K rounds before they start shooting it regularly again. Ask the any of the Academy, WalMart, Dicks retailers for who is buying up all the 22LR..... its the same 4 guys who know when the truck comes, buy all they can and then its either sold online or marked up for a gun store down the street. Its happening and the only way to stop is not to pay the jacked up prices and let these re-sellers choke on their supply.

 

[Sam1911]

...and the fact no new manufacturing capacity has been added since has any bearing whatsoever on supply?

Now that's really not true. Read through the other thread linked above. There are new plants and increased capacities both inside and outside the states. It is just a lot harder to accomplish due to rimfire ammo requiring a completely different manufacturing process than centerfire, so the equipment is not adaptable.

However, you are certainly right that a lot of new .22 firearms and .22 shooters are shooting more rounds per outing than the old traditional models. I've been in carbine classes with guys who brought .22 AR variants (back when it was a lot cheaper) and we'd run through 400+ a day.

Plus, there are just A LOT more shooters in society now than in decades past, and they are shooting more often. So the combination of slow-to-react supply chains and higher demand has exacerbated the problem we all blame on "scalp gougers."

 

[Wildbillz]

and the reason 223 came back is because consumers got fully supplied, which meant that demand for 223 went back down. Once that happened, normal supply levels of 223 were reached and then were surpassed by those trying to meet the once high demand. After that, it only followed that the price had to go down and down and down.

we wont see 22lr come fully back everywhere until everyone who wants to buy it fills their personal cache and literally stops buying it for 6 months.

What he said.

First it will hit the shelf's, those that have not had any will buy all that they can. Once they have enough in there hands that they feel safe or can't afford anymore, it will sit on the shelf's. Once it sits and stocks keep coming in, volume will build. Once the store manager sees volume build up on the shelf's and little product moving out the door he will have an incentive to drop the price a bit (a small bit, they have gotten use to it flying off the shelf and getting a higher price. Its a hard habit to kick). Once the stores start to take less and less of the product from the distributers/mfg cos there stock of it will build up to where they will drop there prices a bit. This will go on till we reach the new balance point on price and supply.

Unless; Something else happens and all hell breaks loose again then were back to square one.

Same holds true for pistol powders. I have seen one place that started to get some powder but they wouldn't sell you a pound unless you bought 1k of primers with it. There stock of primers has reached there saturation point. So they were trying to keep the price up instead of dropping it by adding the enticement of a limited availability product the powder.

Give it time and as long as there is no major event things will come down a bit. But I don't think we will be seeing any real cheap deals for a couple of more years.

 

[Sam1911]

Consider this: in about 15-20 years we're going to start seeing a wave of estate sales and "cleaning out Grandpa's attic" yard sales where widows and exasperated Sons-In-Law will be wheeling out hand-trucks full of 2013-vintage .22 LR bricks.

I can wait.

 

[denton]

I have met the 22LR shortage, and it is me.

A long time ago, I set aside a few bricks of 22. It seemed like the prudent thing to do, since shortages do happen.

I have grandkids that like to shoot. They use more of my ammo than I do, by quite a bit. Over the past two years, they've shot about a brick and a half of my stash, about 750 rounds.

In the meantime, I've bought 22LR when it's been available. I scored a brick of Federal at Sportsman's Warehouse, I won a brick as a prize at a shooting event, I bought a sealed can of 300 Rem/FED, and I bought a small brick of 375 CCI.

So against use of 750 rounds, I've acquired 1725 rounds. Even dropping out the brick that I won, during the shortage, I've bought more ammunition than I have used. Multiply that by the number of 22 owners across the land, and there's your shortage.

I'm just glad the shortage isn't toilet paper.

 

[I6turbo]

Just a few observations from a former Walmart ammo stalker who bought a LOT of ammo from various Walmarts over the last 8 months or so (just got into 22 then):
1. Just because the clerk tells you they haven't seen any in X amount of time, doesn't mean they're not getting it.
2. That particular clerk may simply not be around when the ammo is rolled out.
3. The ammo is being intercepted by insiders, so if that particular clerk is not "in the loop", they know nothing about it.
4. You may have run into an insider, who is trying to throw you off the track (just go away) so his buddies can buy it.
5. Apathy - after being asked a thousand times a day, many probably have a canned response so you'll leave them alone.

I was monitoring 30 or so Walmarts - I quickly learned which ones were dependable, and which ones had folks obviously playing games with the 22.

One obvious sign I ran across - when a clerk tells you they haven't seen any in X amount of time, and you ask a few questions (inventory shows it should be in stock), and they proceed to beat you over the head...well, you've probably run into an insider.

Usually it's a grumpy old white guy - 2 particular Walmarts I used to visit (5 miles apart) often had ammo show up on the same day. Went in one 10 times, walked out with 22 ammo 10 times. 5 miles down the road, walked in 10 times, never got any ammo, was told "We haven't had any 22 ammo in ages", then went home and watched inventory go down, down, down, gone (as he was obviously selling it).

I've seen employees tell folks they were out of 22, then saw them sell it to one of their buddies who came in 5 minutes after the former shopper left).
I had one tell me "no ammo" last night, then watched her sell a buddy some 223 when there was none on the shelf.
I've had a number of employees sell me ammo from under the counter (a Walmart no-no) - some probably just put it there for convenience (won't have to keep unlocking the case), but they should at least leave a box in the glass case so folks know they have it - how many folks glance at the case, see nothing, and keep walking?
Some of the employees that sold to me from under the counter knew I was monitoring them, and sold it to me just to get me to go away.
I've also seen some of those same employees offer up a number of brands / lots in an effort to get me to bite - when I didn't, they finally brought out the Winchester M*22 I was after. I'll take 3 boxes of that Winchester M*22 (3k rounds) instead of the 3 boxes of CCI MiniMags (300 rounds) she tried to push on me to get me to go away (obviously trying to hang onto the M*22 for her buddies).

I've got all the 22 I need, but I may start helping out some youth programs at our local range, so I'll probably soon be looking for more for the kids.

I have an acquaintance who has experienced the "supplying it to their reseller buddies" at Walmart first hand. Per his story (which I believe) he has a friend at the ammo distributor who fed him info on which Walmart stores were getting ammo shipments. He knew that his local WM got a large .22 LR shipment the night before, and how much. So he went to the store and asked for ammo. The ammo department person claimed not to have any. The shopper insisted on speaking with the store manager, and told the manager the story, and the manager directed a stock boy to go bring out whatever they had. The stock boy wheeled out a fairly large quantity, and the shopper bought a bunch of it because the manager waived the limit due to the situation.

I disagree about the grumpy old white guy part, though. Scamming and scheming knows no racial bounds.

 

[wally]

Have you seen any new rimfire makers yet?

Armscor is now manufacturing ammo in the US, .22lr and .22 mag was one of their first outputs.

No matter what happens to produciton if $50-60 bricks sell the price will not go down. At this price its 9mm reloads instead of .22lr for me.