Is 6 Shots Really Enough?

[Kleanbore]

Posted by murf: i don't agree with you or john. reread my post. six is plenty.

John set forth some calculations for which one can choose one's own assumptions regarding hit rate and the number of hits required. One cannot "disagree" with the results---they represent pure mathematics.

If one accept a 30% hit rate, which I believe everone will accept as reasonable if the targets attack quickly and by surprise and move fast, and if one is willing to consider that two hits on each of two targets might be required, John's caluslations show that six rounds are very marginal.

Don't like those assumptions? Plug in your own. If perchance you could make acceptable hits seven times out ten, and if you needed four hits, six rounds would give you just over fifty percent chance of success.

I did read your post. You said "if you have six shots, make them all count. it will be enough".

Making them all "count" is a nice goal, but it's unlikely in real defensive shooting, and even if one can do that, it does not begin to substantiate the assertion that "it will be enough".

How many assailants are there? How many times do you have to hit them? Do you really want to end up with an empty gun?

You went on to say "... if you have 18 shots, make them all count.... make them all count". Well, if I do happen to need eighteen, six is certainly not enough. If six is enough, I will certainly make every effort to shoot no more than six.

And you said if you have two shots, make them count". Where does that leave you if you needed six and would like to have a few left in the magazine?

 

[murf]

morning kleanbore,

make them all count (accuracy) should be every ones goal.

john put together some very useful statistics the op can use to evaluate his hit rate.

enough bantering for me.

i really don't think the issue here is round count. the op is wanting to know how many rounds does it take to make him confident enough to win in any defensive situation. the answer is: no amount of rounds will give you confidence in that situation.

effective defense is more than just a handgun and round count. i suggest the op take a defensive handgun class that focuses on all aspects and scenarios of a defensive encounter. build up your confidence and stop worrying about round count.

and if you get into a situation you can't handle, just run away (like forrest gump).

murf

 

[Kleanbore]

Posted by murf: and if you get into a situation you can't handle, just run away (like forrest gump).

If I can safely retreat, I will do so, under any circumstance.

However, my running days are in the past.

John's analysis was an eyeopener to me. Last year at about this time, I retired my Centennial from primary carry duty and started carrying something with more capacity.

Funny thing is, the defensive handgun course I had taken really should have caused me to do that beforehand.

My reason for not having done so is that I had been thinking about cumulative probability (taking into account how remote the likelihood of needing a firearm really is) rather than conditional probability (the likelihood of needing more than five when the game is afoot). I should have known better. It took both John's analysis and a comment from someone on THR in one of the innumerable threads we have had on this subject to show me the light.

Your suggestion is a good one. Shooting fast in a scenario that simulates an attack by two moving targets really should show most people what they need to know.

 

[DNS]

30%...something to consider.Thank the Lord my LCR is an eight shot then. Of course its 22lr but i hear they bounce around inside a body cavity.

So i've got that working for me.


But honestly i just have no desire to carry a tap/rack over a wheelie regardless of the math.

 

[tomrkba]

All this brings us to the next question: how many people are shot in gun fights after their revolver or semi-auto went dry and before their next shot? What are the odds of this occurring with semi-autos and with revolvers?

 

[Warp]

All this brings us to the next question: how many people are shot in gun fights after their revolver or semi-auto went dry and before their next shot? What are the odds of this occurring with semi-autos and with revolvers?

Where would somebody find data like that?

Is a "gunfight" the only potential defensive situation that would call for using your pistol?

 

[HighRoadRover]

The J frame is good for me because it is easy to carry and thus it is likely to be with me. It's goal is to enable me to break contact and run (hobble) away. So count me in that school of thought. I think we are slightly ahead in this thread.

Without invoking the 9 vs. .40 vs. .45 (or .357 Sig) debate, it would be better to have a hi-cap semi with two extra mags. And a backup J frame. But the single J frame is what I am likely to be carrying.

Differing opinions are not "wrong" as long as the user has thought through his/her best defensive options and is prepared to execute them.

 

[BB93YJ]

I have never been in a gunfight. Hope I never am. I do carry at all times, except sleeping time of course, and then there's something within reach.

I'm 6'4" 240, 60 year old that's been carrying since a little dust up back in the '70's regarding two escaped felons, Lancaster, and Dennis. http://www.ohptrooper.com/personal.htm My brother and I walked out of the gas station as they were going in. The murder/kidnapping that happened there began a multi-state spree in which several law enforcement and civilians were killed. After what happened then, well, like I said, I've been carrying ever since. It is my right, and my responsibility. Only difference now, my CHL.

I've read this whole thread. My 642 is a constant, "always" gun. The G30, about half the time, with the 642 always along as a BUG.

That said. I've watched several videos on youtube of what appear to be armed inner city "yutes" strolling into various stores, and start a robbery. Then something interesting happens... the store owner manages to get to their gun and shoot at, and/or, hit at least one of the assailants. Here's the interesting thing , they always remind me of the Three Stooges trying to vacate the premises as they all try to go out the door at the same time.

On the other hand, they're mostly gangsta types relying on intimidation. The types of situations I might face here near the DFW metromess would likely be a lot different. 5, 6, or 11 or 17 rounds. Whatever... first hit's what counts the most.

Just wish someone would make a concealable, belt fed, ccw piece. Man, that'd make the mall ninjas jealous.

 

[PabloJ]

My last revolver was five-shot S&W 940. I found moon clips to be bigger pain in the ass then the so called 'speedloaders'. I now own two Glock pistols. It's such a comfort not have to think about reloading a firearm. I'm 100% certain 16 shots of 10x25 will be more then enough. If I ever take up handgun hunting my firearm of choice will be large bore revolver otherwise I have to say no fhanks.

 

[RealGun]

My thought is that 5 shots better be enough, because when carrying my SP101 .357 in the summer, that's what I have before a reload. I always worry about running out though, whether practical or not. I have a speedloader in pocket and a go bag in the vehicle with more in a box and another speedloader full. Even patrolmen aren't prepared for a major gunfight without their car nearby, so preparedness has its limits in practical terms.

 

[Tcruse]

It seems that the question for many boils down to you trust a revolver in today's world. I suppose that many think the world has not changed sine the revolver ruled. I tend to think that I want at least as good a tool as the bad guys. I also think that the bad guys get the option of choosing when and where, so they are likely to have more numbers on their side. So, for me a semi-auto with multiple mags of 10-20 rounds makes more sense. I also think that a 9mm with more rounds is likely to win the day over bigger caliber with fewer rounds.

 

[Elm Creek Smith]

MY EDC is a 4 inch .357 Magnum Smith & Wesson Model 686-4 loaded with Federal 158 grain Hydrashok Tactical .357 Magnum ammunition. I am one of two officers in my agency that qualified with 100% scores and the only officer carrying a revolver. The other officers carry .40 caliber Glock 22s. In the event that I need more than 6 rounds in a hurry, I carry a .38 Special Smith & Wesson Model 37 in my pocket. For more leisurely or extended social situations, I carry 4 speedloaders for the 686 and a speedstrip for the 37. Of course, the 10% pepper spray, flashlight, cuffs, and 26 inch expanding baton give me other options. I also carry a Ka-Bar TDI knife and a Spur neck knife.

Off duty, I always have the Model 37 along with (generally) my primary 3 inch .357 Magnum Smith & Wesson Model 13 loaded with Speer 135 grain "Short Barrel" .357 Magnum ammunition.

ECS

 

[tomrkba]

Where would somebody find data like that?

Is a "gunfight" the only potential defensive situation that would call for using your pistol?

The reports and investigations would need to be scoured. One guy did it by reviewing news reports and he quantified caliber versus hit rates and stops: http://www.buckeyefirearms.org/handgun-stopping-power.

My primary interest is what happens in gun fights and which tactics, gear, and mindset increase the odds of success. Animal attacks, "zero shot stops", and certain police actions (particularly SWAT) are not relevant to citizen encounters in this context. I call this the "armed citizen self-defense" context.

My hypothesis is the odds of being maimed or killed by a bullet while reloading is very, very low.

 

[X-Rap]

The radio here has been headlining a story about the conviction of a CA gang member and his crime spree here in western CO and how his two cohorts have excaped to a neighboring country (murder was one of the crimes)
Denver frequently has reports of multiple criminals assulting citizens.
Even in the remote areas here in the west ranchers have been attacked at their remote cow camps by more than one assailant.
I don't know if the times have changed or just the reporting but given the ample evidence that I have viewed plus my perception of what can transpire in a real ugly gun fight I can't with any honesty say 6 shots would be enough.
The statistics on hit/miss, the across the board proof that multiple attackers can and do exist in all environments, understanding that stand and shoot gunfights happen in the movies all make me very satisfied with a 15 rd gun and a reload.

 

[Kleanbore]

Posted by DNS: But honestly i just have no desire to carry a tap/rack over a wheelie regardless of the math.

Leads to one obvious solution--two wheelies.

 

[Shawn Dodson]

An interesting observation:

The most recently released NYPD SOP-9 "Annual Firearms Discharge Report" data from 2011 document that 7 rounds or less were fired in 65% of NYPD OIS incidents, while in 35% of cases officers needed to fire more than 7 shots to stop the threat. Interestingly in 29% of the incidents, more than 10 shots were required to end the violent encounter.

For 2010, in 67% of the NYPD OIS incidents 7 rounds or less were fired; however in 33% of the incidents more than 7 shots were required to subdue the threat. In 21% of lethal force encounters more than 10 shots were required.

So if NYPD officers need more than 7 shots to stop violent attackers greater than 1/3 of the time, why would innocent civilians who likely have no body armor, no radio, no partner, no cover units, no less lethal options, no duty belt with extra magazines, yet who are being confronted by the same violent felons as the police need less ammunition than the NYPD officers?

--Doc GKR (see: http://www.m4carbine.net/showthread.php?t=127423​

 

[murf]

apparently the nypd are not flexible enough to adapt.

murf

 

[Elm Creek Smith]

Because we're better shots.

ECS

Sent from my little slice of Heaven.

 

[Shawn Dodson]

Because we're better shots.

Have YOU been in a gunfight? How many hits did you get?

 

[Agsalaska]

I will have to go back and read thru the 11 pages. Im not sure how I missed this thread.

I hope so, because I carry either a 5 shot Taurus 85(that is amazingly accurate) or a 7 shot Kahr K40.

I think the key is to be deadly and disciplined with whatever you carry.

 

[SharpsDressedMan]

I may never have shot and killed anyone, but I have never missed, either!

 

[PedalBiker]

When I carry a 5 shot I always carry at least one full reload. If I thought "6 was enough" I'd only have to carry one extra outside the cylinder.

Beware folks who quote averages but give no standard deviation.

You'll never know how many is "enough" until it's too late to change what you have on hand. Why handicap yourself?

 

[JSH1]

From defensive gun perspective against bg six is plenty only if you are not likely to meet bad guy(s) in first place. You know in Smallville USA where everyone knows one another.

I believe that describes the vast majority of people that carry a concealed weapon.

 

[jon_in_wv]

Six is plenty, unless you need more, then you are screwed.

 

[X-Rap]

I live in smallville squared but it is the same town that housed the 2 killers that buried the woman jogger from Montana a year of so ago.
Just a few yrs ago an excaped convict from AZ had a shootout with the cops just down the road, one of the same bunch that burned that couple down in NM.
Ranchers beat and robbed, long time fugitives caught, gang incroachment you name it.

Yea I believe that's pretty close to where many people live. I'm not betting on a one on one fight if it comes and I sure don't intend to have it be a fair one.