Sales are UP since the election.

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Tirod

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I've seen some misinformation about gun sales being down put out by some sources as if a large number of people have suddenly stopped buying guns because there's no reason to worry about the present administration.

Don't know how or why this is out there but it's not true. http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2017/04/robert-farago/nra-ila-trump-slump-gun-sales/

The NICS checks say different - things are rolling along just as much as ever, nobody just quit buying guns. Do the math, if anything people wouldn't just stop if they already planned to buy. Even if a different administration had come into power - level headed people know there wouldn't be major instantaneous changes in law. Creeping incrementalism is their preferred method, and for good reason. It softens and deflects response, which they know they can't restrain.

So, no, if you have been hearing from sources or reading online that there has been some sudden down turn in buying guns - no, not so much. NICS doesn't lie. Some of those other sources do.

If you've heard nothing at all - ok.
 
I manage a high-volume gun shop and I can tell you that sales are down sharply across the industry. Our sales are down, and the sales of all our distributors are down. We're getting visits from sales reps we haven't seen in years, and all sorts of manufacturers and distibutors are offering crazy good deals in an effort to offload products. We always try to match our competitors' prices, whether local or online, and I'm seeing an amazing number of sales where the guns are being sold below dealer cost.

Right now I'm seeing more manufacturer incentives offered at one time than I've ever seen before. SilencerCo has a $200 rebate with every silencer, Springfield is offering free magazines and holsters for each gun sold, Smith and Wesson is offering up to a $75 rebate for certain guns sold, and SIG is paying gun shop employees up to $50 for each SIG gun they sell.

NICS checks are not a good indicator of gun sales. More and more states are using the NICS system to facilitate private gun transfers. And more and more people are using these private transfer services as they learn about the new laws. Here in WA, private sales have been required to go through the NICS system since December 2014, yet there are still people who don't know about the new law. I get several calls a day from people who are looking to buy or sell a gun on the private market and don't know about how to follow our new law. And our rate of private sales is steadily increasing as more and more people learn about the new law and how to follow it. We're seeing an increasing number of customers who constantly buy and sell guns privately and have us do the NICS checks.

So we're doing a whole lot of NICS checks, but a higher percentage than ever of those checks are to facilitate private sales; firearm sales from our own stock are down sharply from this time last year.
 
I guess the numbers don't lie, but I too have noticed a sharp depression. I do a lot of trading and such on Armslist, and it's slower than it's ever been. I've been trying to get rid of a few guns I don't like that would have easy sales anytime in the last five years, and nobody even bothers to lowball me anymore. I've also heard from people in my area that the local gun stores are ghost towns.

Wasn't there some deal in California earlier this year though? I remember seeing on the news that people in California were buying up guns left and right trying to get ahead of some law. Could that be where the numbers were coming from?
 
I think those numbers [EDIT: If those numbers are even correct; after reading the subsequent posts I'm not sure they're accurate at all] are coming from an increase in private sales run through the NICS system, while the number of new gun sales is down sharply.
 
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Tirod wrote:
The NICS checks say different - things are rolling along just as much as ever, nobody just quit buying guns.
Click to expand...

Well, here's a link to the FBI's current NICS statistics and if you compare December 2016 with December 2015 and the first three months of 2017 with the corresponding months in 2016, the numbers are down by as much as 20%. Yes, February 2017 was bigger than January 2017, but that doesn't tell us anything as it was still below any number since November 2015. Further, the only time since 1999 that January was greater than February was 2013. Every other month has shown an increase.

https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view

But, you don't need any statistics. Logic itself would tell you that gun manufacturers who nine months ago were pricing ARs at $600 and up and could barely keep up with demand would not today be selling those same guns for $500 IF demand was UP. Cartridge and bullet manufacturers wouldn't be laying off employees IF demand for their products (which would track firearms sales) was UP.
 
Tirod wrote:
Don't know how or why this is out there but it's not true. http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2017/04/robert-farago/nra-ila-trump-slump-gun-sales/
Click to expand...

The article cited refers to data provided by the NRA-ILA. As I noted above, comparisons by month to preceding years since the election show that gun sales are down significantly. The NRA-ILA purports to "debunk" this by comparing January (which as the data shows is always almost always a slow month) with February. Spurious or irrelvant facts like this on the part of the NRA-ILA is one of the reasons why I joined former-President George H.W. Bush when he resigned his NRA life membership.

Liberty cannot be defended with lies, half-truths and statistical shenanigans.
 
Tirod posted:
Sales are UP since the election.
Click to expand...

American Outdoor Brands (parent of Smith & Wesson) doesn't agree.

This is from their 3 Quarter report on the 2017 Fiscal Year results:
"Jeffrey D. Buchanan, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Chief Administrative Officer, said, 'During our third quarter, strong November results more than offset late-quarter declines in both NICS background checks and firearm product shipments. That late quarter shift in consumer demand patterns has since carried forward into our fiscal fourth quarter. Accordingly, we have updated our full year guidance.'" [Emphasis added].​
See: (http://ir.aob.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=90977&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2251201)
 
Just talking to gun store employees will tell you that they are a lot slower now than before the election.
 
Price trends are more important than the total number of transfers. Prices are undeniably down (except for high-end collectibles).
 
I think the NICS stats remaining strong are heavily contributed from used firearms more than new, personally. I know I've been focusing on the older stuff since they are still cranking out the new stuff. I think sales are still happening (they are in our little corner of the world) but it isn't benefiting the new manufacturing as much.

This is why I think its key to pass the Hearing Protection Act, companies would quickly adopt integrally suppressed models and it would spark buying again.
 
I believe that sales are down and the 20% figure mentioned sounds about right. I feel sure there will be differences from one city or region to another. I don't see it as a big deal one way or the other. I see it more as a return to normalcy.
 
If retail sales are stable compared to a year ago, with prices decreasing on AR and various components (it's reported), then retail sales of Non-AR guns/components would have to be higher, to compensate.

I've read the above comments about private transfers, but addressing the common perspective which only seems aware of the Retail industry.
On Armslist, including just the Memphis area I've seen tons of ARs since the election, and I'm aware that there were many before the election also.
 
Do any of the naysayers understand economics?

I don't know where sales are. I would imagine NRA and NSSF do. Corporate members of both knowingly lying about sales would expose themselves to SEC violations. Further, basic economics says that if prices for the same items are down in Jan/Feb this year vs last, volume being up is entirely possible. While there may be less politically motivated demand - that allowed for volume AND margin - lower prices on same items may be driving sales this period, thus, prices down, volume up is perfectly credible.
 
Tirod said:
I've seen some misinformation about gun sales being down put out by some sources as if a large number of people have suddenly stopped buying guns because there's no reason to worry about the present administration.

Don't know how or why this is out there but it's not true. http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2017/04/robert-farago/nra-ila-trump-slump-gun-sales/

The NICS checks say different - things are rolling along just as much as ever, nobody just quit buying guns. Do the math, if anything people wouldn't just stop if they already planned to buy. Even if a different administration had come into power - level headed people know there wouldn't be major instantaneous changes in law. Creeping incrementalism is their preferred method, and for good reason. It softens and deflects response, which they know they can't restrain.

So, no, if you have been hearing from sources or reading online that there has been some sudden down turn in buying guns - no, not so much. NICS doesn't lie. Some of those other sources do.

If you've heard nothing at all - ok.
Click to expand...

You're wrong. Find a better source...

Some people are really struggling to accept the fact that the unnatural, hyper-demand caused by Obama and company is slowly going away and that things are returning to "normal."

Similarly they don't want to face the fact that future years worth of buying has already been done in many cases.
 
Just lost a little more respect for thetruthaboutguns.com

Not the first time I've seen them spin something in a manner they like, rather than reality. Just tell the truth people, the whole truth.
 
When I buy a gun, 99% of the time it is a used gun. I am the same way with autos. I guess that all the reported sales figures are from new purchases but the NICS checks can be for used purchases as well as local transfers, as has been mentioned. If an FFL dealer sells a used gun from his cases chances are he makes more profit than if he sold new.

Here in NC, if you have a CHP you do not have to get a background check if you purchase any new or used gun from a dealer. Just show them your CHP and walk out with the gun. Many states offer this service. I'm sure you can write an algorithm that relates background checks with the total of new guns sold but that makes very little sense to me. If I buy a used gun I have a gun I didn't have. If I buy a new gun I have a gun I didn't have. One is recycled but it is still new to me and is still a purchase. Why it doesn't count to the bean counters is something that skews the numbers that they publish.

A lot of new guns are discounted to clear up the backlog created when they anticipated a Clinton victory. Once the pipeline is at a manageable level, prices will settle into their eventual price range. New gun sales may be down but I'm sure gun sales in general is at its usual level and will remain there with prices rising and falling according to the supply and demand of the time and region.
 
RPRNY said:
Do any of the naysayers understand economics?

I don't know where sales are. I would imagine NRA and NSSF do. Corporate members of both knowingly lying about sales would expose themselves to SEC violations.
Click to expand...

The assertion in question wasn't based on reported sales figures. The TTAG article says NSSF did some sort of voodoo extrapolation based on the number of NICS checks. Even if their statistical approach is valid it still doesn't tell you anything about sales of NEW guns, since NICS doesn't distinguish between a new gun and a used one that was manufactured 50 years ago.

Show me industry sales figures of NEW guns and then we can discuss a valid statistic. Until then we may well be talking about the same old guns changing hands over and over.
 
I think a HUGE number of guns that people considered purchasing in the coming 5-10 years have already been bought at this point. In essence their purchases were "pulled-in" due to fear. Depending on political conditions, two things are going to happen and indeed, are already happening:

First, lots of guns that people bought out of fear are going to be re-sold. This in part explains the NICS numbers. Second, not only is the political climate going to effect gun sales, but the fact that millions already satiated their gun-buying appetites for years to come has left a huge hole in consumer demand.

We'll see if major manufacturers continue to cut prices in order to spur demand...
 
DeepSouth said:
Just lost a little more respect for thetruthaboutguns.com

Not the first time I've seen them spin something in a manner they like, rather than reality. Just tell the truth people, the whole truth.
Click to expand...

They really like guns. A lot. I guess you can't blame them for seeing what they want to see.
 
my guess is lower prices will have some effect on demand, but the fear buying is done for now.
 
I know an accessories manufacturer that are laying off a bunch of temporary employees that they hired in the last couple of years.

The industry will be able to handle this bump in the road. I'd rather have an economic pinch than have my rights taken away.
 
The NICS checks may be the most consistent indicator, but it is by no means an accurate representation of actual sales. There are just too many variables from states/localities starting to mandate NICS for personal FTF transactions and, with the increase in NICS checks for CCWs issues to the off-sets of purchases that don’t require a NICS inquiry due to the purchasers with a CCW exemption.
 
Solomonson said:
I think a HUGE number of guns that people considered purchasing in the coming 5-10 years have already been bought at this point. In essence their purchases were "pulled-in" due to fear. Depending on political conditions, two things are going to happen and indeed, are already happening:

First, lots of guns that people bought out of fear are going to be re-sold. This in part explains the NICS numbers. Second, not only is the political climate going to effect gun sales, but the fact that millions already satiated their gun-buying appetites for years to come has left a huge hole in consumer demand.

We'll see if major manufacturers continue to cut prices in order to spur demand...
Click to expand...
I think that is especially true of the AR's. From my point of view, AR's are to shoot and just how many do you need to shoot? (A couple perhaps) Ruger is bringing out the LCRx in 22LR. They introduced the GP-100 in 44 Special earlier this year. Ruger listens to gun buyers and probably reviews the forums from time to time. Smith & Wesson has not been raising prices like they had been based on a casual review of things I might be interested in. That is because demand is down. Their prices were already "high", but Ruger is catching up.
 
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