There may be far more to this particular chess game then meets the eye.
But first, a few facts.
Last year, Asia consumed more oil then North America. Venezuela is America's fourth largest oil supplier. China already imports a third of its oil from other countries, and is still needs far more to expand at the rate it wants too. Iran is China's largest oil supplier. Iran signed in October 2004 a $100 billion, twenty-five-year contract with the China National Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec) (state owned naturally) for the joint production and export of liquefied natural gas (LNG), much of which will ultimately go to China. Iran is the fourth largest world producer of oil, and sits atop the second largest reserve of natural gas.
India is not our friend. Despite having a democratic election system, the continually elect communist leaders. They are bitter because we supported Pakistan in the 80's, and Pakistan is still to some extent our friend. India just signed a 40 billion dollar long term deal with Iran for oil and natural gas, which to them was necessary considering they themselves produce almost no oil/gas. They also just recieved a 20 percent share in the development of a key Iranian oil field.
As you can see China and India, the world's most populous nations
http://www.gesource.ac.uk/worldguide/guide_nations.html both have serious, nation breaking long term investments in Iran.
Which brings to mind a question. What would happen in the case of overt, declared war on Iran by the US? China currently has 20 DF-5 ICBM 5 megaton missiles in its inventory, all capable of reaching the west coast. They have about 80 nuclear weapons total. As of 1998, China was included in SIOP (since renamed OPLAN 8044), our nuclear operational plan.
Overt warfare is not a likely option IMO, due to mutually assured destruction. Unless our government has a true long term strategic plan which does not include the cabal of China, India and Iran in it. Which means first strikes on China at the least. India also posseses nuclear weapons, but how willing they are to use them is in question. But lets say the US has a different plan in mind.
In which case
covert warfare will prevail, harkening back to the days of CIA funded and advised coups. The Coalition for Democracy in Iran was formed in 2001 to mobilize the efforts of a variety of groups and individuals across the United States supporting the aspirations of the Iranian people for freedom, democracy and respect for human rights in Iran. The CDI strongly supports President Bush's designation of Iran as part of the deadly "axis of evil." Michael Ledeen [of the American Enterprise Institute], Morris Amitay [a former director of the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC], and James Woolsley [former CIA director] formed the Coalition for Democracy in Iran, which has strong ties to the exiled Reza Pahlavi, the deceased shah's son.
Senator Sam Brownback (known as Mr. Iran by some) in 20 May 2003 introduced the Iran Democracy Act, asking for $50 million to fund opposition groups dedicated to the overthrow of the Islamic regime. The Iran Democracy Act would provide funds for pro-democracy broadcasting into Iran, would reform radio Farda to make it more effective, and would state that it is the policy of the United States to support transparent, full democracy in Iran; to support an internationally-monitored referendum in Iran by which the Iranian people can peacefully change the system of government in Iran. I don't know if it was passed or not.
On February 12 2004, the Senate passed an important resolution, S. Res. 304, that was submitted that same day by Senator Brownback. Denouncing the elections as harmful for true democratic forces in Iran, the resolution stated that the policy of the United States should be to advocate a democratic government in Iran that will restore freedom to the people of Iran, abandon terrorism, protect human rights, and live in peace and security with the international community.
O May 06 2004 the House passed H.CON.RES.398, which was introduced by HIRC Chairman Henry Hyde (R-IL) on March 25. It expresses “the concern of Congress over Iran’s development of the means to produce nuclear weapons,” and was passed under “suspension of the rules” on 06 May 2004. The final tally was 376 for the resolution, three against, 14 answering “present,” and 40 not voting. Opponents of this concurrent resolution charged that it led the country down the road to war against Iran. This resolution demands that Iran immediately cease all efforts to acquire nuclear enrichment activities and calls for the country to honor its stated commitments to grant IAEA inspectors unrestricted access to nuclear sites. But the resolution also calls upon all state parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty--including the United States--to use ``all appropriate means to deter, dissuade, and prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.'' It also "calls on the President to use all appropriate means to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons..." Even if this bill doesn't authorize the use of force against Iran, it creates a precedent for future escalation, as did similar legislation endorsing ``regime change'' in Iraq back in 1998. This legislation called for yet more and stricter sanctions on Iran , including a demand that other countries also impose sanctions on Iran. Critics charged that sanctions were unmistakably a move toward war, particularly when, as in this legislation, a demand is made that the other nations of the world similarly isolate and blockade the country.
Bush has refused to rule out the use of force against Iran, Iran's defense minister has said that they will launch preemptive strikes if they feel their nuclear program is at risk. Iran's prime minister said in his election speech that their nuclear program will not be stopped by words. The CIA estimated in mid 2003 that Iran was 2-3 years away from developing a nuclear bomb.
Just ten minutes ago Fox News Channel had a little ticker tape thing that read "can the US leave enough troops in Iraq and still invade Iran?"
Sources:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-timeline.htm
http://www.nukestrat.com/china/indexchina.htm
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/icbm/df-5.htm
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